2024 fantasy busts, lightning round: 10 quick expert takes
Not all of these guys will disappoint this NFL season, but here are a few compelling reasons why they might.
Picking up where I left off with my speedy roundup of expert breakout picks, here are the busts. No time for more intro text; kickoff is 10 days away!
Quarterback
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: “Yes, Allen was fantasy’s highest scoring quarterback in 2023. But that doesn’t make him (or any signal-caller in leagues that only start one) worth a pick in the third round. Never mind that Allen’s passing-game weapons are worse than a year ago. Or that his 29 touchdown passes last year were his fewest since 2019. Or that last year’s 15 rushing touchdowns were more than he had in 2021 and 2022 combined.” — Gary Davenport, The Athletic
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans: “As encouraging as his rookie season was and as noteworthy as the team’s offseason additions are, Stroud still has only one year of production under his belt. Additionally, he doesn’t possess the type of elite dual-threat capabilities we see from other top fantasy quarterbacks, which makes Stroud’s fantasy production strictly tied to his passing.” — Derek Tate, Pro Football Network
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: “[I]t's hard to repeat as the No. 1 running back. The last time that happened was 2002-03 with Priest Holmes. Legends like LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson and even McCaffrey still need to accomplish this feat. Aging, overworked, injured and a weakened offensive line are all relevant concerns for McCaffrey if you plan to draft him at No. 1 overall.” — Jamey Eisenberg, CBSSports
De’Von Achane, Dolphins: “Achane's rookie-season efficiency was nowhere in the vicinity of sustainable (7.8 yards per carry and 11 TDs on 130 touches), and it's no lock that he'll see a substantial boost in usage. Achane cleared 12 touches only three times as a rookie and will still be sharing work with Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright.” — Mike Clay, ESPN
James Cook, Buffalo Bills: “Cook finished as the RB12 last season but was just the RB19 on a per-game basis. Considering his role that lacks valuable touches (targets and goal line work), this may be close to his ceiling outcome. … He is capable of meeting ADP expectations with another highly efficient season, but the most likely outcome is that he fails to pay off at cost.” — Michael OHara, The Sporting News
Wide Receiver
Jayden Reed, Packers: “Reed was a pleasant surprise as a rookie, finishing WR23 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. On the surface, his ADP of WR35 doesn’t seem unreasonable. The problem is that Reed had a snap share of 70% or higher in only two of the 18 games he played last year (playoffs included). He didn’t even reach a 70% snap share in any of the eight games fellow Packers WR Christian Watson missed.” — Pat Fitzmaurice, FantasyPros.com
Nico Collins, Texans: “Collins is an outstanding player, ranking fifth in yards per route run (3.28 YPRR) last season, but this Houston Texans passing attack seems prone to induce migraines. Tank Dell had a 26.9% target share to Collins' 23.1% in the final full six games the two played together, and now, they're adding Stefon Diggs' six straight 1,000-yard seasons into the mix. Plus, Dalton Schultz won't vanish off the planet entirely.” — Jim Sannes, FanDuel.com
Amari Cooper, Browns: “Cooper saw 8.4 targets per game, the highest of his career, but the Browns just committed over $40 million in guaranteed money to Jerry Jeudy, who is five years younger than Cooper, and issued lofty expectations for the talented, young WR. They're still committed to David Njoku's 8.3 targets per game (just 0.1 less than Cooper) and unfortunately have a quarterback who has looked like a shell of his former superstar self.” — Daniel Dopp, ESPN
Tight End
Travis Kelce, Chiefs: “He'll be 35 this season and is coming off a postseason where he was an absolute monster for four games, but a total disappointment in most of the nine games prior. The Chiefs, to their credit, made splashes at receiver this offseason with the idea that they can spread the ball around and not have to ride their hero tight end every week.” — Dave Richards, CBSSports
David Njoku, Browns: “Njoku finished as the TE6 last season, but much of his production came with Joe Flacco under center. With quarterback Deshaun Watson hopefully playing the entire season, I question Njoku’s value in this offense.” — Richard Janvrin, FantasyPros.com