Free-agency fallout: Fantasy winners and losers at running back
Free-agency fallout: Fantasy winners and losers at running back
How will the fantasy value of Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon and other backs be affected in 2024?
If you’ve been doing an NFL detox since the Super Bowl, you’re in for quite a shock when you take a look at the fantasy running back landscape as the dust settles on the free agency frenzy. Lots of big faces in new places, both figuratively and literally (football players have big heads).
Here’s some of what you may have missed and how each player’s fantasy value might be affected in 2024. I’ve also combed the World Wide Web to include takes from a range of expert voices. I’ll follow up soon with recaps of the other positions.
Derick Henry - Signs with Ravens
🎉 Impact: Baltimore should provide Henry with all he needs to have a monster season, even as he enters his age-30 season. The Ravens run a ton and have a stellar offensive line. There is some risk, though, given his age and collective volume of use up until now.
Expert take: “The Ravens should feel confident enough in their ecosystem to throw any running back out there and get a functional-to-great run game. But a uniquely gifted, truly one-of-one, physical player like Henry being dropped into this offense weaponizes that ecosystem. It’s a huge win for both sides and I’ll likely be quite interested in drafting Henry in fantasy football this season.” — Matt Harmon, Yahoo! Sports
Saquon Barkley - Signs with Eagles
🤷 Impact: Some love this move from a fantasy perspective, but others are more skeptical, given Jalen Hurts’ prowess as a goal-line rusher. An improved offensive line to run behind should help Barkley overall, but Hurts may cap his ceiling.
Expert take: “Barkley should maintain a relatively high and stable fantasy football floor thanks to his volume and talent, but his ceiling will be dictated by the touchdown department. Thanks to the much-maligned “Tush Push”, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is one of the top red zone rushers in the NFL — he has 38 total touchdowns on the ground since 2021, which ranks first among all players.” — Pranav Rajaram, 4for4.com
Tony Pollard - Signs with Titans
👎 Impact: After a disappointing season as the main guy in Dallas, it doesn’t look like a move to Tennessee is going to do him any fantasy favors.
Expert take: “Pollard should have an opportunity to seize a similar amount of work, but in a less optimal environment -- bad offensive line and shaky passing game -- and with Tyjae Spears lurking to steal work if the 2023 struggles repeat. Fantasy managers -- this columnist included -- would've loved to see Spears get a chance instead, but this might quickly morph into a time share.” — Tristan H. Cockcroft, ESPN
Joe Mixon - Traded to Texans
😺 Impact: This seems like the best landing spot Mixon could have ended up in. She should give the Texans a reliable goal-line option after Dameon Pierce struggled to hit paydirt over the last two seasons.
Expert take: “He'll command lead-back volume in a Houston, while giving Stroud a productive option in the screen game and as an underneath outlet versus zone coverage. Mixon fits a reliable RB2 in fantasy next season with the ability to produce RB1 numbers, depending on the matchup.” — Matt Bowen, ESPN
Austin Ekeler - Signs with Commanders
😕 Impact: Overall, it’s a downgrade for Ekeler, who won’t be the leadback over Brian Robinson Jr., but he’ll still have significant PPR value.
Expert take: “No matter which rookie quarterback the Commanders draft, I don’t think anyone should be expecting Ekeler to return to fantasy dominance in 2023. He’ll likely be in a timeshare of carries for the first time in his career, splitting reps with Brian Robinson. That’s before you get to how a rookie QB learning curve and a new coaching staff implementing their system could impact his opportunities.” — Prince J. Grimes, USA Today
Josh Jacobs - Signs with Packers
🙂 Fantasy Impact: Unless the Packers make any more moves at the position, Jacobs seems like he’ll be the main man and a solid RB2 in Green Bay.
Expert take: “Going from the Raiders to the Packers is a massive upgrade. Last season, the Packers finished with 5,873 total scrimmage yards compared to the Raiders' 4,922. The Packers scored 383 points compared to the Raiders at 332. With Jordan Love entering his second season as the starter and the expected growth from the league's youngest group of pass-catchers, it's reasonable to expect the Packers offense to be even better in 2024.” — Robert Lorge, Rotoballer
Aaron Jones - Signs with Vikings
Impact: Jones found a pass-happy offense that would be wise to utilize his pass-catching abilities. He’s got a good shot at retaining RB2 value in his final season as a 20-something back.
Expert take: "No matter the quarterback, Kevin O'Connell 's offense should be productive for Jones, and this was a good landing spot after he was released in Green Bay given the expected workload." — Jamey Eisenberg, CBS Sports
D’Andre Swift - Signs with Bears
👍 Impact: The NFL’s other favorite Swift seems like he’ll be the three-down back in Chicago, but whether his likely paring with the soon-to-be drafted Caleb Williams is a boon or not to his fantasy value is up for debate.
Expert take: “With this contract, Swift will have an opportunity to be the RB1 in Chicago’s revamped offense which will be led by Caleb Williams after the team selects him #1 overall in April. Since 2011, lead RBs playing alongside rookie QBs (with 10+ starts) have averaged 250+ opportunities and the RB21 finish.” — Matthew Betz, The Fantasy Footballers
Devin Singletary - Signs with Giants
🤷 Impact: The Barkley-sized hole in New York won’t be filled by Singletary alone, so he’s likely to end up in RB3 territory in whatever committee the rebuilding Giants convene.
Expert take: “Singletary is a good back who was a usable asset at times last season, but he’s rarely been more than a low-end No. 2 back or flex starter in his career. I would expect the Giants to make another move, possibly in the NFL draft, to create more depth at the position. But for now, Singletary will be a volume-based flex starter in a likely bad offense.” — Michael Fabiano, SI.com