Mock draft: Can a zero RB strategy work in 2024?
Mock draft: Can a zero RB strategy work in 2024?
I revisit what a zero RB draft looks like after many years of ignoring it, and offer tips for those wanting to try it out.
There’s less than a week to go before the 2024 NFL season kicks off for real, but there are still a lot of fantasy teams yet to be picked, so I wanted to quickly touch on some strategy on what is always a draft-heavy Labor Day weekend.
In my wild youth, I played around with waiting on running backs until the seventh round and passing on QBs until even later, but I’ve found that my best teams usually stem from a more straightforward and unsexy approach of roughly picking “the best player available” based on all the research that goes into my player rankings.
But since I haven’t explored what is probably the most infamous strategy — zero RB — in ages, I thought I’d dust it off and take it for a spin using our mock draft simulator tool.
Let’s see how it went and whether zero RB is something you might want to implement in your next draft.
Zero RB basics
The definition of Zero RB that most subscribe to is that you do not select any running backs over the first six rounds of the draft. Some will also call it Zero RB when avoiding the position over five rounds. But in my mock, I didn’t select a back until round seven.
Given the abundance of backfield timeshares and running back injuries, the idea here is that you shouldn’t spend early-round picks on running backs. Instead, target wide receivers and maybe land an elite quarterback and/or tight end.
“[I]n defense of Zero RB, 10% of the position's top 20 scorers -- accounting for the two required starters for each of 10 teams in a standard league -- were either selected outside the top 150 selections on average or available via free agency in-season,” writes ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockcroft, referring to last season’s results.
Another reason to consider the strategy, as Fantasy Life’s Geoff Ulrich points out, is “it's simply easier to pick upside players at wide receiver early in drafts.” Stats covering 2015 - 2020 back this up, showing that, on average, receivers outperform backs over the first 120 picks or so, especially from picks 25 - 50, based on ADP.
The downside, of course, is you end up with a bunch of dart throws at running back, but the main thing to keep in mind is many of the backs you draft probably won’t last the season on your roster, and that’s OK. The hope is a few pan out for you, and you will make smart moves on the waiver wire to get what you need from the position.
“The key to building a successful Zero RB team lies not in your draft but on the waiver wire. Every season, there are a few running backs who aren’t on our radar during drafts and earn a starting role — and thrive. Examples of this are guys like Kyren Williams last year, Jamaal Williams in 2022 or Cordarrelle Patterson in 2021,” writes Pranav Rajaram of Yahoo! Sports.
Zero RB mock results
League settings: 12 rounds, half-ppr scoring, QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/FLEX/DST/K
Avoiding running backs for six rounds led to a pretty exciting crop of receivers, anchored by CeDee Lamb (1.4) with the 4th overall pick, followed by Drake London (2.9), and two rounds later, high-upside rookie Malik Nabers (5.4), followed by break-out candidate Rashee Rice (6.9).
“Given the current depth of receiver talent in the NFL, it is hard to go wrong with taking one, let alone three of them early.” — Pranav Rajaram, Yahoo! Sports
My receivers could have been even more impressive, but if I’m going to pass on all those running backs, I want to come away with at least a stud tight end and a top-tier QB, if at all possible. Otherwise, you’re losing out on one of the main advantages of a well-executed zero RB draft: gaining an edge over your league mates at these positions. So, in rounds 3-4, I snagged Sam LaPorta (3.4) and Lamar Jackson (4.9) and still ended up with Nabers and Rice to round out my WR corps.
Regarding backs, rounds 7-11 were dedicated to the position. Unsurprisingly, there are no slamdunks here, but in zero RB, you want to target backs “with clear and present contingency value -- guys who will easily be plug-and-play fantasy options if things break a certain way in their respective backfields,” writes NBCSports’ Denny Carter.
A simple way to go about this is to see what’s left once it’s your turn in the seventh round and take the “safest” back, one likely to offer solid production from Week 1. There will be plenty of those higher-upside backs who are a teammate’s injury away from fantasy stardom types to choose from in the following rounds. In this mock, Chicago’s lead back, D’Andre Swift (7.4), was a pretty easy choice as likely the closest thing you’ll get to a season-long, three-down back at this point in the draft.
Tajae Spears (8.9), a popular sleeper pick by many experts, was next and fits the mold of a typical zero RB draft target: super talented and likely to thrive if given the opportunities but held back by backfield competition (Tony Pollard). The same goes for Chase Brown (9.4), who some like as a potential breakout back after his impressive summer. It still looks like a committee backfield for Cincinnati, at least to start the season, but Brown should be the lead pass-catching back from the gate.
The remaining picks at RB, Rico Dowdle (10.9), Ty Chandler (11.4), and Rams rookie Blake Corum (12.9), could all emerge in starring roles should Ezekiel Elliott (old), Aaron Jones (old and injury-prone) or Kyren Williams (young and injury-prone) run into issues.
Final thoughts
I must admit, I liked my team much more than I thought I would, having not attempted a zero RB draft in many years. There is a pile of potential breakout stars at the RB position that one can load up on from round seven onward. In a real draft, I doubt all of these guys would be available when they were for me, especially with all the buzz Brown is getting and the likelihood of other teams snagging handcuffs like Chandler, but still, I can see how this could work out pretty OK.
“The uncertainty at RB and the desire for people to load up on WRs makes the sixth-through-eighth rounds the sweet spot for drafting RBs.” — Michael Salfino, The Athletic
Am I doing zero RB in my next draft? Probably not. At the very least, I will feel much better about prioritizing WR early should the draft unfold that way.
Here are a few closing takeaways on zero RB:
Don’t go into any draft with one strict strategy. I strongly recommend having a few broad strategies in mind, but because you go into a draft leaning toward zero RB, so much can and should change depending on what other teams do.
For example, in another zero-RB mock I did (see results here), Christian McCaffrey was available at pick 4. Now, I have my reservations about McCaffrey at No. 1 overall, given his health and age, but at pick No. 4, I’m not sure you can pass on him. Yet, that’s what I did, opting for Justin Jefferson because that was the zero-RB thing to do. Stay flexible and pivot when necessary.
Consider ending your RB fast a round early. Much depends on your league’s team settings, but if you only start two WRs and a flex, as was the setup for this mock, taking your fourth receiver, who you can’t even get into your starting lineup for the first few weeks over your first RB doesn’t make a ton of sense. I could have snagged Devin Singletary or Raheem Mostert in round six, which would have likely brought more stability to my backfield. But if I’m starting three WRs, I’d rather have a high-upside WR like Rice over Singletary or Mostert.
Don’t wait too long on QB and TE. As I alluded to earlier, I want to come away with some studs at QB and TE, with a priority given to TE, considering the lack of depth there, if I’m going to do this. Going back to my other mock, the one where I passed on McCaffery, I also went with WRs with my first three picks and then felt like I had to reach for Trey McBride in round four, a tight end who doesn’t quite qualify as a stud, because he’s not dating Taylor Swift and his name doesn’t rhyme with sorta.