Players to draft at every position this Labor Day weekend
A free weekend primer for those who forgot they had a fantasy football draft coming up.
Hey all,
Hope things are good! I’m sending out a bonus edition of The Playbook today as I know many of you are likely drafting this weekend.
I also wanted to share the news that I recently reached a Substack milestone of over 100 paid subscribers. I can’t thank you enough for your support. You are literally keeping 5thDownFantasy.com alive and one day, I might even get to pay off the credit card debt I’ve wracked up running the website for the last 7 years! Maybe someday…
If you’re not yet a paid subscriber, I still appreciate your interest. Please know this special edition of the Playbook is a rare freebie. If you like what you see, please consider supporting the cause and upgrading to unlock the all Playbook content, including complete player rankings for draft, dynasty, and for Week 1, which will be released in a few days.
Good luck drafting this weekend and thanks again for being amazing, generous fantasy football freaks.
Best - Justin
Draft these players this weekend
Whether you call them sleepers or breakouts, these players are worth keeping in mind during your next draft, courtesy of the 5th Down Fantasy team.
Quarterbacks
Anthony Richardson (IND)
The Colts have the perfect head coach for Richardson to succeed. Shane Steichen was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles last season and helped develop Hurts into what he is today. When Hurts started his rookie year (Weeks 14-17), he was the QB7. He knows how to develop rushing quarterbacks into better passers, and more importantly, he knows how to let them run at the beginning of their careers.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Colts have the 3rd easiest strength of schedule, which should allow Richardson to work in some easier matchups throughout the year in order to shine. He might not be the prettiest real-life quarterback we watch this year and I am sure there will be some “what was he thinking” throws. However, his rushing ability adds a solid floor week to week and a decent shot for him to finish in the top 10 at the position. — StrategicNFL
More: 3 ‘must-have’ fantasy quarterbacks in 2023
Justin Herbert (LAC)
When it comes to the word “sleeper”, usually people think of lesser-known names that have the opportunity to help win your league. Justin Herbert doesn’t fit that definition, but I believe people are sleeping on his actual fantasy potential. Coming off of a disappointing season, it seems that the fantasy community is less excited about Herbert than they are about the other elite options. Because of his 4th round draft price, I will have a lot of Herbert on my fantasy rosters.
It doesn’t take an expert to know that the LA Chargers have been disappointing for most of Herbert’s tenure. Because of this, they have a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. In Dallas, Moore helped Dak Prescott finish as a fantasy QB2 finish 2019 and produce solid production across his time there. Given the weapons the Chargers’ offense has and the pedigree of production shown by Moore, Herbert is poised for a big year. — Andrew Breitbarth
More: 4 sleeper quarterbacks to target in 2023 fantasy draft
Sam Howell (WAS)
He’s capped by a head coach who wants to plod down the field with a run game that will give his defense time to rest. And yet…. he has talent all around him. Terry McLaurin and Johan Dotson can take the top off of defenses and work them underneath. Antonio Gibson is excellent at catching the ball. The tight ends are better than you think. New OC Eric Bienemy comes from several years under Andy Reid to implement an offense that should be more explosive than Scott Turner’s, and Howell has the arm to make those deep throws to the fast playmakers on this offense.
Howell is a very good runner too. Underrated, even. The man can fly down a field, and he is not afraid to put his shoulder down. He is shifty. He is fast. He is fearless. — Matt New
More: 3 breakout quarterbacks to target in 2023 fantasy drafts
Running Backs
Cam Akers (LAR)
From Week 13 onward, Cam Akers was the RB4 in fantasy football. This year he walks into a Rams offense that will have no competition in the backfield. His ADP in sleeper PPR leagues is 64. That would put him just about in the middle of the fifth round, and I love this spot for him. He has serious RB1 potential and could be a huge steal that elevates your entire team. — Matthew Meachum
More: 4 breakout fantasy running back candidates for 2023
Khalil Herbert (CHI)
While Khalil Herbert has been steadily rising up draft boards he is still nowhere near where he should be going as the clear RB1 for the Chicago Bears. The Bears did bring in competition via free agency and the draft, D’Onta Foreman is already dealing with injuries and while Roschon Johnson has a very bright future, he is the clear backup to start the season.
The big knock against Herbert last year was his pass-catching and pass-blocking but by all accounts, he has improved on both. Getting a starting RB this late in drafts makes Herbert the ideal RB1 for a zero RB build. — Martin Grisko
More: 4 sleeper fantasy running back candidates for 2023
J.K. Dobbins (BAL)
He has been insanely efficient averaging 5.9 yards per carry OVER HIS CAREER. That level of efficiency rivals players like Jamaal Charles in his prime. His efficiency is boosted playing with Lamar Jackson because defenses have to account for either taking off with the football.
The point is, Dobbins does not need a ton of work in order to have a great year and to beat his RB18 price tag. From Weeks 14-17 where Dobbins finished as the RB14 last year, he averaged 14.25 fantasy points. That was without Jackson. In a high-scoring offense, and with a full recovery of the torn ACL, Dobbins could be in the 18-20 carries per game range which would let him smash his current ADP. — StrategicNFL
More: 3 ‘must-have’ fantasy football running backs in 2023
Travis Etienne (JAC)
Etienne is a perfect high-upside running-back candidate. Being part of a potentially elite offense is extremely encouraging but even more so is when the coach says that he wants Etienne to improve to the point of rushing for over 1600 yards. Even if you assume that Etienne won’t improve to that level, it still means that Pederson wants to use Etienne the same as he has the year before.
I wouldn’t be concerned with Pederson’s history with running backs because, in his time with the Eagles, he clearly hasn’t worked with a back like Etienne. I think this a running back you can draft in the third round who is, barring injury, a very good bet for 1100 rushing yards. That kind of floor is extremely valuable but he still has the upside to finish as a top-5 running back. In the early third round of fantasy drafts, Etienne could end up winning you your league. — John Young
More: 2023 fantasy outlook: Travis Etienne
Wide Receivers
Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
Although there’s a chance Rodgers is slow to connect with his most talented receiving target, can a less-than-optimal Rodgers really be any worse than Zach Wilson was last season? Remember, Wilson still finished as the 21st-ranked wide receiver in PPR formats in 2022. That was with Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White at quarterback. You should expect no worse under Rodgers, even if the first few games yield less-than-stellar results.
I also wouldn’t be too concerned with the emerging run game in New York, as that has never stopped Davante Adams from putting up massive numbers in Green Bay alongside impressive performances by Aaron Jones. The excellent defenses he has to play this season shouldn’t be a big concern for fantasy managers either because receivers of Wilson’s caliber and surrounding talent tend to overcome these hurdles overall. — John Young
More: 2023 fantasy outlook: Garrett Wilson
Chris Olave (NO)
With Derek Carr behind center, New Orleans should pass more often which means more opportunities for Olave. In Andy Dalton’s 14 starts last year he only attempted more than 34 one time, Carr passed this number 9 of his starts. If you extrapolated that average with Dalton at QB over the course of New Orleans’ 17 games, you’d have gotten 459 pass attempts. For context, that’s two more than the Panthers who finished 29th in pass attempts.
Olave is a stud in any advanced metric you can find. He was at least top 15 in target rate, target share, and yards per team pass attempt. He was also 5th in the NFL in all-designed rushes and targets per snap. When you combine Olave’s efficiency with more targets and an upgraded QB it’s not hard to see how Olave takes a Super Mario-esque jump into the top 10 WR ranks. — Martin Grisko
More: 4 breakout wide receivers to target in 2023 fantasy drafts
D.J. Moore (CHI)
D.J. Moore slots in as the Bears’ No. 1 wide receiver after he was traded with a package for the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft (showing how much the Bears coveted him).
He will look to help his ascending QB breakout at the same time (shades of Stephon Diggs helping Josh Allen or AJ Brown helping Jalen Hurts), with Justin Fields primed to be the best QB Moore has gotten to catch passes from. The two statistics that Fields will be an upgrade for Moore will be his higher TD rate and his intended air yards per attempt. Moore’s biggest issue over his career thus far has been a lack of touchdowns but with Fields (5.4 TD % in 2022) he will enjoy the highest TD percentage from a QB in his career (previously last year at 3.5% in which Moore set a career-best for TD receptions). — Martin Grisko
Christian Watson (GB)
Watson makes BIG plays. Last season, he averaged 14.9 yards per reception (11th in NFL) and was tremendous after the catch. He also had 6.7 yards after the catch per reaction and of the receivers who played at least 10 games, he ranked 11th in that category for receivers just behind Jaylen Waddle at 6.9 yards after catch per reception.
Not only that, but Matt Lafleur also designs carries for Watson to make big plays. He had 7 carries for 80 yards (11.4 per carry) and two additional touchdowns, which puts him ahead of Justin Jefferson, and D.K. Metcalf in their rookie seasons. He reminds me of A.J. Brown in his rookie year with the Titans — an incredibly efficient receiver and if they received more volume, could explode. He’s clearly a player that can win you a week with a single touch of the football. — StrategicNFL
More: 3 ‘must-have’ fantasy football wide receivers in 2023
Tight Ends
T.J. Hockenson (MIN)
The former top-10 pick of the NFL draft finally seemed to have his breakout season last year, especially after being traded to the Minnesota Vikings. After the trade, T.J. Hockenson saw his targets uptick from 6.1 a game to 8.6, a number that could increase even more this year after a whole offseason with his new team.
In a world without many “safe” weekly starting TE options Hockenson looks like a safe bet to finish top 5 while also giving you some spike weeks to help win you some games. When Justin Jefferson is double or triple-teamed the Vikings should be able to create mismatches for Hockenson all over the field. — Martin Grisko
Pat Freiermuth (PIT)
If Kenny Pickett can take the next step as a QB it will be with the help of Pat Freiermuth. The good for Freiermuth is that he almost had 100 targets last season showing how much his QB looked his way. The bad is that he only finished with 2 TDs.
With the Steelers’ offense looking a lot more competent this preseason, it would be natural to think they will have more red zone opportunities which would lead to more TDs for Freiermuth. Betting on Pickett to take the second-year leap seems like a bet worth taking, and with that a nice uptick in production for his third-year TE. — Martin Grisko
More: Why these 10 tight ends will score the most fantasy points in 2023
Greg Dulcich (DEN)
After a respectable rookie campaign, Dulcich made his debut into Denver’s lackluster offense in week 6 after being sidelined with a hamstring injury. Dulcich’s speed and deep-threat ability quickly made him a favored target for Russell Wilson, racking up 411 receiving yards on 33 receptions in a 10-game stint.
While his blocking woos may keep him off the field at times, Dulcich held an 84.1% route participation rate (5th) in 2022, while netting 12 total deep targets (3rd). Translation – he is a very real option in this Broncos offense, and a great stowaway TE prospect heading into the 2023 season. — Mo Aneizi