Thursday night preview: Fantasy break down for tonight's opening matchup
Thursday night preview: Fantasy break down for tonight's opening matchup
If history is any guide, there will be a lot of points scored tonight as the Chiefs take on the Ravens. Here's what to expect from a fantasy perspective.
It’s that magical time of the year again. Fantasy football draft season has been in full force for the past few weeks, and we eagerly await the NFL season opener. As a nice teaser, the NFL is gifting us some Friday Night Football in Brazil this year for Week 1.
Once again, the Kansas City Chiefs are the reigning Super Bowl champs, and they take on the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of last year’s AFC Conference championship. Baltimore landed 4x Pro Bowl running back Derrick Henry this off-season. At age 30 he is on the wrong side of his career, but this man is built different. With 27 total points scored in the last meeting between Baltimore and Kansas City, I’m here to assure you there will be much more scoring this time around.
Since 2011, the average number of points scored in the NFL Kickoff game is 49.46. This also includes the Packers/Bears snoozefest of 2019. Don’t let that one scare you away from this Thursday’s potential. The Chiefs and Ravens will come to play at an opportunity to be the AFC’s top dog.
Thursday night fantasy preview: Week 1 starts
Elite Starts
These are my locked-in starts that you never need to think twice about. Just put them in and watch the magic happen.
Travis Kelce (KC, TE)
At age 34, people are starting to question if this vet still has it. Last season was the first time since 2015 he was not able to eclipse 1,000 yards. One thing no one can argue is that he is still one of Mahome’s favorite targets. Until I see a steep decline from him, I still have him locked in as one of the top tight ends in the game. Look for Mahomes to establish him early to prove the haters wrong.
Projection: 7 catches for 88 yards and 1 touchdown
Patrick Mahomes (KC, QB)
Despite winning the Super Bowl, Mahomes is arguably coming off one of his worst statistical seasons. He had his fewest passing yards (4,183) and touchdowns (27) since 2019 and his most interceptions throw in his entire career. With all this being said, he still managed to turn it on when it counted to win the Super Bowl. Don’t let last year’s struggles take away from what he is capable of doing. Baltimore comes into the season as a top 5 defense, but Mahomes should still be able to offer enough to keep a fantasy manager satisfied.
Projection: 325 passing yards, 22 rushing yards, and 3 touchdowns
Lamar Jackson (BAL, QB)
Jackson’s running ability was back on full display last year, averaging 51.13 rushing yards per game. He’ll need to up his touchdown numbers this year to provide return on his draft value at QB3 off the board. Lamar has an absolute cannon of an arm and it will be up to the likes of Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, and Mark Andrews to haul his passes in. He gets a tough test on the road in Week 1, but Jackson will be pulling out all the tricks against the Chiefs to open the season.
Projection: 252 passing yards, 42 rushing yards, and 2 touchdowns
Derrick Henry (BAL, RB)
Similar to Travis Kelce, will this be the year Henry finally falls off the elite running back cliff? While a lot can happen throughout the season, I see Baltimore wanting to make quick use of their new weapon. Henry has the ability to punish defenders while racking up touchdowns. He has eclipsed double-digit touchdowns in the last six years, and as long as he can stay healthy, he should be able to do the same this year.
While being the focal point of his offense last year, Henry showed no signs of slowing down. Baltimore can’t wait to include him in their offense, and he’ll get his number called whenever they are near the endzone. While the Baltimore offensive line isn’t great, anything is better than what he ran behind in Tennessee last year.
Projection: 1 catch for 120 all-purpose yards and 1 touchdown
Solid Starts
These are the starts you shouldn’t be nervous about but certainly aren’t locked in for top-tier production.
Rashee Rice (KC, WR)
There are a lot of questions for Rashee entering the 2024 season. Will he demand more targets than Travis Kelce? Can he hold off hotshot rookie Xavier Worthy and be the top wideout for this team moving forward? Will he play all season, or will his legal issues force him into a suspension? Rice is primed for a big year if all goes well. He and Patrick Mahomes are clearly on the same page. In week 2 of preseason, he posted 4 catches for 35 yards in limited action with Mahomes. Going into 2024 he somehow almost has the most experience with Mahomes out of everyone in the wide receiver room. I think Rice will get off to a quick start this year to cement his place on this offense.
Projection: 6 catches for 75 yards and 1 touchdown
Zay Flowers (BAL, WR)
Fantasy owners around the world will be crossing their fingers for a big-time sophomore break-out from these next two. While I still think he was going too high in fantasy drafts, he certainly has plenty of opportunity to do some damage this year. As a rookie, he saw some moments of flash posting 7/858/5. Operating as the WR1 in Baltimore, Flowers should see plenty of targets throughout the year.
My only concern is whether we will rely on that big play in each game to make fantasy managers happy. Temper expectations for him this week as an annoying Chiefs defense is first up for him. Let’s hope Derrick Henry stays healthy and can keep defenses focused on him.
Projection: 6 catches for 59 yards
Mark Andrews (BAL, TE)
It’s been a few years since we have seen a full Mark Andrews on display. Since breaking out in 2019 with 64/852/10, he has only posted over 1,000 yards once and hasn’t broken the double-digit touchdown barrier again. While I believe in the talent, injuries have kept this guy off the field.
This could open the door for Isaiah Likely, who is hungry to get more playing time. I won’t put them on the Gronk/Hernandez level, but this duo could be nightmares for opposing defenses. Keep an eye and his game status this Thursday as he is still recovery from an injury he sustained from a car accident.
Projection: 5 catches for 73 yards
Isiah Pacheco (KC, RB)
Pacheco finished his sophomore season as the RB17 in fantasy last year. Coming into 2024, he looks to stay healthy and surpass that number, running behind a top 10 ranked offensive line. Part of his game where he thrives is his ability to catch and protect the ball. Last year he averaged 3.14 catches per game and only fumbled the ball once all year.
He is the clear-cut best runner on the team and should see 20+ touches per game. As long as he can fend off his competition of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Samaje Perine (this shouldn’t be a problem), I don’t see any reason why Pacheco can get into the double-digit touchdown range this season.
Projection: 3 catches for 101 all-purpose yards
Flex-Worthy Starts
They are worth a start, but no one is going to blame you if you want to bench them.
Xavier Worthy (WR, KC)
Worthy’s speed alone puts him in an immediate position to make an impact in the Kansas City offense this year. His record-setting 40-yard dash caught the attention of coaching staffs around the league, and there aren’t many better places to land than with the Chiefs.
Running alongside Adonai Mitchell, second-round wide receiver, Worthy was still able to surpass 1,000 in his 14 games played in college. I wouldn’t be surprised to see head coach Andy Reid design some screen plays for him to display his quickness and agility.
Projection: 4 catches for 48 yards
Break Glass in Case of Emergency Starts
Starts that will have questionable usage and you are just hoping you can sneak a touchdown out of them. Pick your poison.
Isaiah Likely (BAL, TE)
Samaje Perine (KC, RB)
Rashod Batemon (BAL, WR)
Justice Hill (BAL, RB)
About the author: Fantasy football has been a part of Neil Forbord’s life for nearly two decades. His fantasy football journey started in 2006 with a small 6-team league with some of his friends in their parent’s basement. From there, it has grown to more leagues than his wife would like. Dynasty, redraft, auction, and best ball leagues surround him during the regular season. Don’t worry, though; that 6 team league has since expanded to 10. Outside of fantasy football, he works as a financial analyst in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. So, you could say that, in fantasy football, he is numbers by day and numbers by night. The only thing he loves more than complaining about his Green Bay Packers is his two cats and wife at home.
 |
|