Your weekend fantasy playbook for Week 4
Your weekend fantasy playbook for Week 4
The latest fantasy football news, rankings, start/sit advice, and more to help you avoid misery on Sunday.
Before we get to this week’s Playbook, just a heads up that I made some changes that I believe are improvements to this weekly read. Some new sections are digging into RB snapcounts, along with a new chart and a look at WR/CB matchups.
Between my full-time job, a wife, baby, and 5-year-old, and a dog with severe anxiety issues, I am left with not as much time as I’d like to focus on fake football, but I still love doing this and want Playbook to be a really informative yet fun read for paying subscribers. I can’t thank you enough for your support, and I will continue looking for ways to add value to your subscription. ICYMI, see the new fantasy trade analyzer tool I sent out earlier this week.
Another heads up that this week’s Playbook is a free read to show free subscribers what this weekly read is all about and hopefully encourage them to support the cause. This weekly send will go back behind the paywall next weekend.
Please let me know if you like the new Playbook, share what you’d like to see more of in the comments, or shoot me a note.
🤕 Fantasy pain index
Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert (chest) is “optimistic” he can suit up, though he only exists in fantasy to take value away from Achane at this point … Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III (oblique) has been limited at practice and his status remains up in the air.
Saints WR Chris Olave (hamstring) is suddenly a game-time decision after suffering an injury in Friday’s practice … Raiders WR Davante Adams also injured his hamstring this week, but he definitely won’t be playing Week 4 … 49ers WR Deebo Samuel (calf) is likely a game-time decision, but TE George Kittle is for sure ready to go … Bears WR Keenan Allen will play.
🫰 Oh, snaps: RB risers and fallers
I’m keeping tabs on some ongoing backfield battles and what the fantasy implications might be looking ahead. Also, check out the new RB snap count analysis chart above for more insights.
Chicago Bears
📈 Roschon Johnson — After zero snaps in the first two weeks, his count jumped to 33 last week, and Johnson converted those into 10.2 PPR points. He should continue eating into Swift’s workload if he continues to out-produce him with his opportunities.
📉 D’Andre Swift — His snaps have increased weekly this season, up to 48 last week, but he’s averaging just 1.8 yards per carry and 6.5 PPR fantasy points per game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
📈 Bucky Irving — The team’s leading rusher despite averaging just 18.3 snaps per game, Irving |may have only played 34 percent of snaps [in Week 3], but he handled the bulk of the rushing work and approached the 10-percent target share threshold that is crucial for running backs,” writes TSN’s Michael O’Hara.
📉 Rachaad White — He ranks 39th among RBs in PPR fantasy points/100 snaps (23.5) while ranking 18th in total snaps. You can do the math on that one.
Los Angeles Chargers
📈 J.K. Dobbins — After roughly splitting snaps with Edwards over the first two weeks, Dobbins earned about twice as many in Week 3, and his 54.1 FPPG/100 snaps is fifth-best among all running backs.
📉 Gus Edwards — His snap count fell to a season-low of 16 in Week 3, and his 14.5 FPPG/100 snaps are the eighth lowest among the 50 backs averaging at least 20 snaps per game.
🥷 Lurking in the shadows: WR/CB matchups to know
Knowing how many fantasy points a team allows to the WR position isn’t super helpful. Looking at individual WR/CB matchups is more indicative of what to expect.
Sneaky start
Michael Wilson, ARI (vs. WAS) — After fighting for attention over the first two weeks, Wilson earned nine targets in Week 3, translating to a 26% targets per route run rate. For context, Marvin Harrison Jr.’s rate was 31%. He’s expected to match up with Benjamin St-Juste, who has yielded the most fantasy points per route run this season.
Bust alert
Garrett Wilson, NYJ (vs. DEN) — Denver’s Pat Surtain II has yet to allow more than three receptions and 29 yards to the three top WRs he’s shadowed so far this season (D.K. Metcalf, George Pickens, and Mike Evans). ESPN’s Mike Clay also points out that “Denver has been in man coverage more than any other defense (63%) and has allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.”
For a complete breakdown of Week 4 WR/CB matchups, check out ESPN’s free cheat sheet or this excellent chart over at fantasypoints.com.
📋 Weekend update: Latest player rankings
🚨 My Week 4 fantasy football rankings for PPR, Half-PPR, and Standard scoring formats will be updated throughout the weekend up until kickoff on Sunday.
📈 3 guys up
Brian Robinson Jr. - RB, WAS (at ARI)
My current half-ppr rank: RB8 (+6 vs. avg expert ranking on Fantasy Pros)
Austin Ekeler has been ruled out with a concussion, opening the door for more opportunities. “With Ekeler hurt, Robinson should be more involved in the passing game, and Arizona has already allowed four running backs to score at least 13.3 PPR points this season,” writes Jamey Eisenberg of CBS Sports.
Baker Mayfield - QB, TB (vs. PHI)
My current half-ppr rank: QB11 (+4 vs. avg expert ranking on Fantasy Pros)
“The Eagles are one of just 10 teams that have allowed at least five passing touchdowns through the first few weeks of the season, so Liam Coen should scheme up plenty of opportunities for Mayfield to take downfield shots,” writes USA Today’s Jacob Camenker.
Chuba Hubbard - RB, CAR (vs. CIN)
My current half-ppr rank: RB13 (+6 vs. avg expert ranking on Fantasy Pros)
The Panthers have found some stability offensively, with Andy Dalton taking over behind center, which bodes well for the entire offense. In Week 3, Hubbard tacked on five catches for 55 yards, on top of his 120 rushing yards. With Jonathon Brooks potentially returning in Week 5, Hubbard has at least one more game to stand out, and the Bengals provide a friendly matchup for this possibility.
📉 3 guys down
Brandon Aiyuk - WR, SF (vs. NE)
My current half-ppr rank: WR18 (-7 vs. avg expert ranking on Fantasy Pros)
The darling of many “buy-low” advice articles out there, Aiyuk has yet to have his breakout game of 2024. Count me as one who agrees he’s a great buy-low trade candidate but not the strongest start in a very tough matchup with stud CB Christian Gonzalez and the Patriots’ secondary.
J.K. Dobbins - RB, LAC (vs. KC)
My current half-ppr rank: RB27 (-4 vs. avg expert ranking on Fantasy Pros)
How can a guy be trending up in one section of the newsletter and down in another? As RotoBaller’s Andrew Ball writes, “Dobbins will get plenty of opportunities in Week 4. It might not matter.” The Chiefs have allowed the fourth least rushing yards to backs so far, and Dobbins is without two starting offensive linemen.
Michael Pittman Jr. - WR, IND (vs. PIT)
My current half-ppr rank: WR42 (-7 vs. avg expert ranking on Fantasy Pros)
As Anthony Richardson continues to struggle, so goes Pittman’s fantasy stock. On top of his own poor late performance, it’s a very tough matchup this week for Richardson against the Steelers, who are yielding the second-fewest fantasy points to QBs this season.
💸 DraftKings dumpster fire
Here are a couple of tournament lineups I’m going with, if I can actually remember to enter them in a tournament before Sunday kickoff.
QB - Jayden Daniels, WAS (at ARI, $6,500) — “He exceeded salary-based expectations in two of his three games this season and has a very high ceiling with his dual-threat potential. In Week 1, the Cardinals defense struggled to contain dual-threat Josh Allen, and they have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs per game this season.” — Zach Thompson, Fantasy Labs
WR - Chris Godwin, TB (vs. PHI, $6,800) — “Godwin leads the Buccaneers in targets in 2023 with 25. That is 30% target share. He also has scored a touchdown in all three games this season. The volume and production should be there against the Eagles in Week 4.” — Mike Reedy, FantraxHQ
TE - Elijah Higgins, ARI (vs. WAS, $3,100) — “With Trey McBride likely sidelined due to a concussion, Higgins will have an expanded role in Week 4. … the hope here is that Higgins sees a strong snap share within the red zone and is able to convert on an end zone target as he did in Week 2.” — Michael O’Hara, TSN