Fantasy fallout: Stefon’s new digs and other key offseason moves
Fantasy fallout: Stefon’s new digs and other key offseason moves
What new homes for Stefon Diggs and a host of other key players means for their 2024 fantasy value.
Before we could catch our breath from catching up on all the big NFL offseason moves at running back, perennial stud receiver Stefon Diggs ended up in Houston. Yes, the Bills have officially raised the R rebuilding flag. What does this trade mean from a fantasy perspective for Diggs? I’ll explore here and catch you up on all the other major signings and trades I’ve yet to get to.
Starting with the potential downsides for Diggs, the biggest change to anticipate will be his target share, which will come down from the 29.5% he had in Buffalo (161 targets). He’ll be joining a talented and crowded receiving room featuring Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Dalton Shultz, so expect fewer targets and less production overall.
While losing Allen as his quarterback can also be perceived as a negative, reigning rookie of the year C.J. Stroud is no slouch, and the addition of Joe Mixon to bolster the running game means this offense is likely to be more high-powered overall than the one Diggs is leaving behind.
Other fantasy factors in Diggs’ favor include what should be a boatload of red-zone targets, as Diggs projects to emerge as Stroud’s go-to inside the 20. Diggs should also face less stiff opposition from the corners covering him, as defenses will need to spread their resources to deal with a much stronger supporting cast than what he had in Buffalo.
🤷 Impact: Overall, expect fewer receptions but roughly the same amount of yards and maybe more touchdowns than the eight Diggs hauled in last season. But week to week, it might be a coin flip as to which Texan receiver will rule the day fantasy-wise.
Expert takes
“I’m likely to target whoever has the lower ADP between Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs in drafts. Tank Dell feels like more of a boom-or-bust flex option now. He drew 7.5 targets in his first 10 games with 100+ yards and/or a touchdown in six of them.” — Colin McTamany, fantrax HQ
“Diggs turns 31 in November and some fantasy players might think the late-season swoon was a signal that his career decline has truly begun. But working with other top targets in Houston, rather than being in the full crosshairs of opposing defenses, could work in Diggs’ favor. “ — Scott Engel, Roto Baller
“When evaluating fantasy prospects, the team's offensive capabilities are important. I would much rather invest draft capital into a wideout who is on an offense that is going to move the ball say rather than the Washington Commanders. It's more opportunity consistently.” — Jacob Hamilton, FantasyData
NFL offseason: More fantasy winners and losers
Justin Fields - Traded to Steelers
😒 Impact: Despite his fate as the backup to the also newly acquired Russell Wilson, Fields still has a chance to be a difference-maker in fantasy when he is on the field.
Expert take: “I can’t even remember a previous instance where a backup QB was guaranteed to be a premium single QB league waiver add if he found himself in the starting role. Fields is a unique case in the 2024 season and someone fantasy managers need to have a plan for.” — Jason Katz, profootballnetwork.com
Kirk Cousins - Signs with Falcons
😃 Impact: If Cousins can stay healthy, he’ll be a solid QB2 that bolters the fantasy value of the entire Falcons offense.
Expert take: “At what is going to be a super deep position, I’d rank Cousins as a solid No. 2 fantasy quarterback. Robinson remains a high-end No. 1 fantasy runner with an even bigger ceiling, and London could push for No. 2 wideout value in 2023.” — Michael Fabiano, Sports Illustrated
Keenan Allen - Traded to Bears
😬 Impact: After a career-high 108 receptions with 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns, Allen will likely take a fantasy hit in Chicago, with a likely rookie quarterback and DJ Moore to contend with.
Expert take: “Allen will compete for looks with Moore, who had 96 catches, 1,364 and 8 touchdowns in 2023. Moore figures to lead the group and could post low-end WR1 numbers. Allen, on the other hand, is likely to land on the WR2/WR3 bubble for fantasy purposes.” — Liz Loza, ESPN
Marquise Brown - Signs with Chiefs
👍 Impact: Brown should benefit overall from the improved quarterback play and KC’s high passing volume, though target share will be difficult to predict.
Expert take: “Brown's fantasy prospects might be occasionally hit-or-miss on a weekly basis, but the landing spot is clearly a plus for his overall value. There's a significantly higher, potentially low-end WR2 ceiling again in play for him.” — Tristan H. Cockcroft, ESPN
Calvin Ridley - Signs with Titans
👌 Impact: He should have a chance to get back on track after a messy 2023 in Jacksonville. Pairing with Hopkins should lead to better opportunities in the slot. Consider him a WR2 with upside.
Expert take: “Fantasy players will be too burned by Ridley’s 2023 disappointment season to rank him that highly and there are plenty of questions about Levis and the ecosystem in Tennessee. If Levis can play and Callahan brings over a credible offensive system, Ridley could be a volume sponge and a bit of a value.” — Matt Harmon, Yahoo! Sports
Gabe Davis - Signs With Jaguars
🙂 Impact: Jacksonville’s big-play replacement for Ridley should, at the very least, retain WR4 value, with the potential for more consistency in his new offense.
Expert take: “Davis will have ample opportunity to show he can handle a more robust workload if that's the case. While Ridley's 136 targets last year came with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones missing significant time due to injuries, expecting Davis to surpass his career-high 93 targets (set in 2022) isn't a massive reach.” — Bob Harris, footballguys.com
Gus Edwards - Signs with Chargers
👌 Impact: The Chargers’ new short-yardage option should continue to hit enough paydirt to retain flex value.
Expert take: “At this point in Edwards’ career with a lack of fantasy production in the past, we shouldn’t expect an excellent season out of him, but this could be the best situation for Edwards to stay fantasy-relevant.” — Nathan Jahnke, PFF.com